We find ourselves primarily in Balanced Market Conditions as we finish Q4 of 2025.
This is actually encouraging news given how rapidly inventory has climbed over the past six months. The most notable shift in November is that inventory growth across most product segments has finally begun to slow. At the same time, the Canadian economy posted positive growth—great news overall, but it may delay the interest rate cuts many anticipated for December and January.
“Supply levels have been sitting higher than typical levels for the past three months, mostly due to the gains occurring in the higher-density sectors of row and apartment style units,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s Chief Economist. “This is partially related to the additional supply choice coming from the new homes sector, some of which end up on the resale market, especially near the end of the year. While buyer’s market conditions are more prevalent for apartment-style homes and to a lesser extent row homes, outside of a few pockets of the market, both the detached and semi-detached markets are relatively balanced.”
“The increased supply—across resale, new construction, and rentals—is having the greatest impact on apartment and row home prices, now showing year-over-year declines of seven and six per cent.” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s Chief Economist. That’s a meaningful drop in a short period. Sellers in these segments need to take a hard look at whether now is the right time to list, and if they do proceed, pricing aggressively will be key to standing out. Detached homes, by contrast, are down only two per cent year-over-year and still sit above last year’s levels on a year-to-date basis.
So what does this mean for buyers and sellers heading into the holidays?
Many sellers with stale listings will likely cancel and regroup over the holiday season. That can be a smart strategy—unless a timely sale is still necessary or the property is vacant. While fewer buyers are actively shopping in December, those who are tend to be motivated and focused on starting the new year in the right home.
We can expect a wave of terminations through December and a re-entry of those listings in February and March of 2026. For sellers who stay on the market through the holidays, this could mean less competition. However, it’s important to remember that in a balanced market leaning slightly toward buyers, values are anchored to the most recent sale or price reduction of comparable homes. Just as sellers “reached” during the peak market when demand was strong, today they may need to price more competitively than their closest competitors.
For buyers, the holiday season typically offers a calmer pace with fewer new listings added until late January. This can create opportunities—less competition, motivated sellers, and more negotiating room—even if selection temporarily tightens.
